Monday, March 2, 2009

Has Anyone Seen My Donkey?

I think I lost it, if you know what I mean. Wow, is this market ever going to settle, or are we just beginning a ride to 5000 ? If you've lost your donkey too then you know how frustrating it is to watch the market crumble away with the economy. Everybody selling at the same time just increases the bias to the downside, and we are seeing short selling running rampant. Even the retail investor is beginning to smell blood, and when they panic they make bad decisions. Many are either short or are simply sitting on the sidelines waiting ( and some are looking for their lost donkey also ).
In reality the market has reached an oversold status that it simply cannot maintain, and we may see a short swing up very soon. But that may be short-lived. If we are ever to see a recovery in this market it simply has to bottom. And how will we know when that is? Well, it is always found well after the fact and by then you will know it as people rush back in to devour the bargains being generated during this major sell-off. I'm trying to analyze the picks being generated to prepare for the spike up. Take advantage of the spike when it comes because it will probably be a whopper. Excuse me while I look for my lost donkey.

Have a good one,
Roger

6 comments:

  1. roger I want to hang out with you - Hilarious and your donkey I saw him he kicked me in the a** and stole all my money.

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  2. I've been doing well by basically being short this whole time, either by shorting the stock(s) or buying puts. Today will probably be an up day as investors look to snap up bargains, but I say still stay bearish until we see some real positive signs.

    phil

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  3. Hey Roger,
    Thanks for continuing to write blog posts as we slog through this mess. It has been one tough market to trade in. I've made money, then lost money, then made money, then lost it again. I've learned so many lessons, and the market has been a cruel teacher. It just seems that we bulls can't find a solid footing to build upward momentum from. It's like one step forward, five steps back. I'm sure it's been rough on a lot of people, and I appreciate your perspective and instruction through all of this. I know you've had frustrating moments as have a lot of traders. Whew, it's tiring. I've been sitting out the past week, preserving my dented capital. The market has been so rough and unpredictable with its mood swings (which have been largely dark and bearish). I reiterate what you have said repeatedly, always set stop losses. No matter what, and stick to them. Also, don't try to catch a falling knife. Never try to guess the bottom. When new lows are being set, wait for significant confirmation that the trend has reversed to the upside. If we hold above 700 in the S&P for a few days, that will be good. Seeing that a lot of selling occurred near the close of today's market shows the weakness of the market. There's still a lot of fear that people will get burned for holding too long, and today's economic news was mostly grim.

    Things are being shaken, till what remains is what is worth keeping. Remember, treasure the people in your life and make sure they know. Love deeply and live for dreams that will last beyond you. Don't forget the lessons we're learning during this tough time. Comfort others who are suffering. Hope will not disappoint us. This isn't the end of the story.

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  4. @Keith
    Thanks so much for your words of encouragement to all of us. This time we are seeing is an historic moment that will pass, becoming a footnote in the pages of time. There are so many things more important than the trouble we see now, and sometimes you have to step away to recover yourself and set priorities in perspective. I've enjoyed writing through the years about many things beyond stocks, and I miss the more more simple days. Hopefully we will see a confirmed bottom, and my donkey will come home. I always try to remain upbeat and humorous about many things in dark times. It is a way of dealing with the harsh realities of life. Have a good one.

    Roger

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  5. Roger,

    Where did you go? I've been reading your blogs and trying to find the best way to use SA2.0. Why have you stopped writing?

    Thanks

    Saffi

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  6. @Saffi
    I've been a little sick and my mobility has been hampered, but I am back now at full strength and will be posting more.

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